Will hydrogen power a net-zero future?
*Hydrogen’s economic potential will impact competitiveness strategies across the globe. The GFCC interviewed Distinguished Fellow Prof. Ric Parker and Prof. Yasushi Sekine, from GFCC member organization Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), to understand the science and usages of hydrogen for future energy portfolios and industries. The article below was informed by those interviews and the presentation on the topic that Prof. Parker delivered to GFCC members and fellows on March 9. This article would not be possible without Prof. Parker and Prof. Sekine’s contributions, and the GFCC is thankful for the information they provided the insights they shared and their inspiration.
Will hydrogen power a net-zero future?
Simone Melo
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, with countless industrial applications. For decades, it has been used for making ammonia fertilizers, creating plastic, refining metal, and sifting crude oil into petrol. Hydrogen also fueled the first mission to the moon in 1960. In the past decade, there has been a renewed interest in hydrogen’s economic potential. The latest agenda sets hydrogen as an asset supporting the clean energy transition as climate change threatens the global economy.
Hydrogen has a competitive advantage. It does not release greenhouse gases or air pollutants. It can be made on an industrial scale using electricity from a range of low-carbon sources, such as solar and wind, or through biomass gasification. And it is a source of energy for fuel and heating where often electricity fails. Countries and corporations have invested heavily in designing policies and strategies to develop hydrogen technologies for storage, transport, building heating, and heavy metal manufacturing, such as steelmaking. But hydrogen’s low-carbon promises are still far from the reality since most hydrogen production relies on fossil fuels, releasing high carbon emissions.
Is hydrogen green?
Hydrogen and the low-carbon economy are a part of a tricky equation where it touches hydrogen production. Since 1975, hydrogen demand has increased threefold, almost entirely supplied by fossil fuels, mainly natural gas and coal. Currently, hydrogen production accounts for 830 million tonnes of CO2 per year. The equivalent amount of emission by the United Kingdom and Indonesia combined.
Only 2% of the global hydrogen production uses electrolysis, which splits water into oxygen and hydrogen, with no carbon emissions. Experts call the resulting product ‘green hydrogen’ only if the electricity used comes from renewable sources. The high costs involved remain a significant impediment. Producing hydrogen from solar and wind can reach up to eight times the price of extracting it from natural gas.
“Burning coal to make your electricity and then make hydrogen from it, it is not benefiting the world,” stresses Professor Ric Parker, Chairman of Singapore Low Carbon Energy Research. “The whole chain has to work. You have to create clean electricity from solar, nuclear, or wind to start with, and then you can make hydrogen”.
Many countries are investing in the development of Carbon Capture Sequestration and Use (CCSU) technologies. These mechanisms involve capturing, transporting, and storing greenhouse gases to produce synthetic fuels, chemical, and building materials or reinjecting the gases under deep geological formations.
'Blue hydrogen' is the result of using natural gas and stocking the CO2 released through CCSU technologies to mitigate environmental impacts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been an active actor pushing the use of CCSU to tackle climate change. But the expensive price involved and the possibility of leakage in the capturing process create dissent.
Can hydrogen boost the green economy?
Hydrogen can help countries reach net-zero targets in sectors heavily reliant on fossil fuels. But realizing these strategies depends on consistent investments in green hydrogen production and the development of carbon-capturing technologies.
Home heating & Heavy-duty manufacturing
Global building heating accounts for 30% of total energy use. Space heating, hot water, and cooking rely directly on fossil fuels, primarily natural gas. Long-term strategies blending natural gas to hydrogen can pave a way to decarbonize heat. This solution would face numerous infrastructure challenges, considering building type, location, and heat provisions. Similar technologies could also replace thermal energy in heavy manufacturing processes, such as steelmaking, concrete, and cement production.
Transport
Transport is a large industry that could get a push from hydrogen fuels at multiple fronts: maritime, trucks, cars, and aviation. Global supply-chains rely on heavily loaded vessels worldwide using pollutant fuel oils, accounting for nearly 3% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Hydrogen and ammonia (NH3) can be an option for shipping decarbonization. Hydrogen can also power long-distance trucks and buses carrying heavy loads which would require investments in refueling stations to reduce fuel costs.
Hydrogen fuel cell cars face similar distribution problems to gain track in the market. A renewed commercial interest in hydrogen cars, particularly in Asia, doubled hydrogen vehicles between 2018 to 2019, reaching over 25,000 units. But failure in distribution networks remains an obstacle. In comparison to electric vehicles, hydrogen-powered cars offer a significant competitive advantage. An electric model takes up to one-hour for refueling, even five hours if it’s a long truck. A hydrogen-vehicle refuels almost instantly, similar to a petrol-based model.
Another significant polluter industry, aviation, could use hydrogen to power aircraft. Last year, Airbus announced a net-zero commercial aircraft to enter service by 2035, relying primarily on hydrogen as power sources. But current roles are limited to small demonstrative projects and feasibility studies.
Storage
Hydrogen can harness renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, serving as a temporary storage vector. Solar panels and wind turbines depend on physical environmental conditions that vary during the daytime, which leads to intermittent electricity production. Hydrogen could be set up as an integrator, balancing supply and demand and converting it back into electricity when needed.
Who is investing in hydrogen?
It is not a coincidence that strong oil-based economies in the Middle East and Australia are at the forefront of hydrogen’s industrial development. Most likely, the transition to green hydrogen when it takes place will happen from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The two regions also enjoyed a differential. Both are relatively close to the Equator, where solar panels have a better proficiency. Significant desertic areas are also the right spots for large-scale wind power.
In 2019, Australia announced a national hydrogen strategy with AUD 100 million invested in supporting hydrogen research and design pilot projects. CSIRO, the country's national science agency, designed the technical roadmap coordinating strategy with various stakeholders to push market commercialization. Australia portraits the hydrogen export industry as a game-changer, allowing the use of its natural resources, such as solar, wind, and fossil fuels, to fill global supply chains.
Saudi Arabia is also on the run to become the world’s largest hydrogen supplier and lessen the country’s dependency on petrodollars. The government plans to fuels its futuristic city, Neom, which will be home to 1 million people by 2025, only using green hydrogen. News outlets claimed the Saudis currently hold the biggest hydrogen plant in the world powered by solar and wind, worth USD 5 billion.
Japan has been investing in hydrogen vehicles and coordinating international strategies for the past 10 years. In 2017, the government launched Japan's Basic Hydrogen Strategy, aiming to achieve a world-leading hydrogen society by 2050. The plan designed in collaboration among industry, academy and the government sets commitment to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 26% in 2030 and 80% in 2050.
In Europe, countries such as Germany and France designed their national hydrogen strategies. Germany, which is currently reliant on Russian natural gas imports, released EUR 1,4 billion funding to fund the approved National Innovation Program for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technologies, coupled with EUR 2 billion from private investments. France has a more modest budget of EUR 100 million targeted to the low-carbon hydrogen industry but enjoys efficient nuclear power stations.
Last year, the European Union (EU) started a multilateral engagement to reduce its dependency on natural gas imports by investing in hydrogen. The EU hydrogen strategy establishes pathways for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The plan exclusively sets production of ‘green hydrogen’ with ‘guarantee of origin’ from renewable sources.
What is next?
Hydrogen can be a key asset in a nation's energy portfolios, facilitating a low-carbon economy. Strategies to push hydrogen investment vary depending on pre-existing energy infrastructure (nuclear plants) and available natural resources. There is no one-size-fits-all model to economies worldwide but increased concerns with climate mitigation push multilateral commitments on exclusive investments in green and blue hydrogen.
For Dr. Yasushi Sekine, Professor of Advance Science and Engineering at Waseda University in Tokyo and fellow at Japan Science and Technology Agency, the world faces two different challenges to develop a hydrogen economy.
“We have not only a technological problem with hydrogen industries, but also a social challenge to be able to meet net-zero targets,” points out Dr. Sekine. Dr. Sekine also emphasizes the importance of multilateral engagements across countries to establish a consistent and sustainable hydrogen policy.
The hydrogen economy development can profoundly impact global competitiveness, creating new opportunities to decarbonize heavy-duty manufacturing and shipping. Hydrogen can democratize energy for nations currently dependent on coal and gas imports, such as Japan.
“In Japan, we don’t have natural resources, so we need to consider different options to supply energy demands. Currently, we have hydrogen trade relationships with countries in the Middle East and Australia, and we continue evaluating new technologies to pursue the energy transition”, explain.
Countries with solar and wind resources can generate electricity to develop a hydrogen industry to supply fuel and heating demands. An ample market opportunity arises on ‘hydrogen export’ to cover countries without access to renewables, such as Singapore and Germany.
*Thanks to the Council on Competitiveness for supporting material
